Bayesian estimate: reach a target
With 100 reviews averaging 4.2 and a prior of 7 hypothetical reviews at 3.5, the estimate is (420 + 24.5) ÷ 107 ≈ 4.154.
New five-star reviews = ceil((target × (reviews + prior weight) − (star points + prior weight × prior rating)) ÷ (5 − target))
Reaching an actual 4.5 takes 74 new five-star reviews with this fixed prior. The 7 hypothetical reviews are excluded from the real review count.